The evidence pack that earns its place in the data room.
Before an LOI narrows or an exclusivity clock starts, you need a cited, LP-ready read on the thing your own diligence can't reach from inside a CIM. toog builds the public-source screen — customer concentration, regulatory eligibility, market durability, competitive exposure — flat fee, 72 hours to 10 days.
Your own diligence has a ceiling. The CIM doesn't tell you what the seller doesn't want found.
Between an initial screen and an LOI, you're weighing a target with limited time, no internal deal team, and LPs who expect a cited answer, not a hunch. The gap isn't effort. It's that the questions that actually kill deals sit outside what a CIM, a management call, or a Google search will surface.
Customer Concentration Risk
Public-source mapping of revenue concentration and customer durability before you commit exclusivity to a target with a hidden single point of failure.
Regulatory Eligibility
A cited screen on licensing, permitting, and regulatory exposure — the kind of finding that ends a deal in week one instead of week eight.
Market Durability
Evidence-graded read on whether the target's category is growing, shrinking, or being disrupted out from under the multiple you're underwriting.
The Exclusivity Clock
Every day inside an LOI without a cited answer is a day of dead-weight risk. We're built to return a bounded verdict in 72 hours to 10 days, not an 8-week engagement.
Truth-biased by design.
Most advisors are paid to confirm what you already believe. We're built to expose what you don't want to see. The verdict exists to surface what's actually true, not what's comfortable, convenient, or flattering to your hypothesis. If your assumptions are wrong, we'll tell you outright, then show you why.
Findings are graded on evidence quality. Conclusions survive a rigorous Murder Board before delivery. And if the honest answer is “walk away,” that's what you'll read on page one: you'll know if your thesis fails scrutiny before wasting another dollar on it.
This is not for everyone. It's for principals who'd rather know now than pay later.
Of decision-makers actually want the truth over validation.That's who we serve.
Deal-stage turnaround, start to evidence.No 8-week timelines on a live clock.
A verdict that doesn't flatter.
Most advisors exist to validate decisions already made. We exist to pressure-test them before they cost you.
- “Actionable insights”
- “Strategic recommendations”
- “Comprehensive analysis”
- Ad-hoc methodology
- Single-path analysis
- “Trust our judgment”
- Bury the conclusion on page 20
- Calendar dependencies & consultant theater
- Fee tied to the deal closing or the engagement renewing
- The truth, even when it's uncomfortable.
- Pre-committed conclusions that can't be swayed.
- No flattering omissions. No buried findings.
- 5-framework operating system. Documented. Repeatable.
- Parallel-depth synthesis across competing hypotheses.
- Inversion Test: We state what would have to be true for us to be wrong.
- Answer on page one. Evidence after.
- Async-first rigor. Documented depth over charisma.
- Flat fee, fully disclosed. Zero success component, ever.
Five frameworks. One standard.
Every engagement runs through the toog Intelligence Operating System: a documented methodology combining parallel-depth synthesis, evidence verification, and pre-committed reasoning.
01 Filtration Engine
Guilty until proven innocent. We validate scope, assess truth-readiness, and filter out engagements where the client wants validation rather than reality.
02 Deep Think Protocol
Parallel-depth synthesis across competing hypotheses. We develop multiple paths to full depth before selecting one, preventing premature convergence on comfortable answers.
03 Validation Architecture
Evidence grading on authority, recency, and corroboration. Every significant finding faces a Murder Board; an explicit attempt to destroy the conclusion before delivery.
04 Decision-Hygiene Protocol
Pre-committed reasoning locked before we know your preference. Integrity constraints that survive client pressure. The uncomfortable truth mandate.
05 Minto Delivery
Delivery is structured answer-first, so the conclusion lands before the supporting logic. The evidence, reasoning, and implications are sequenced for fast executive reading and cleaner decisions.
A decision-architecture firm, not an advisor with a stake in the outcome.
Every other category in the room is paid in a way that points somewhere. We aren't, and the engagement letter says so.
Not an Investment Bank
We don't raise capital, run sale processes, or earn a fee when a deal closes.
Not a Management Consultancy
We don't implement, operationalize, or staff your team. The verdict is the deliverable.
Not a Fairness-Opinion Provider
We don't opine on whether a price is fair. We adjudicate whether the deal is worth doing at all.
A Decision-Architecture Firm
We produce the one document in the room with no fee incentive to prefer one path over another, including the option of doing nothing.
One track, scoped to your target.
Every engagement runs the same five-framework standard. Scope and fee follow the size of the decision in front of you — not a fixed price-tier ladder.
Independent sponsors screening a target, or a slate, before an LOI narrows or an exclusivity clock starts.
Deliverable*Inversion Test: We explicitly state what would have to be true for our finding to be wrong, transferring risk from our judgment to hard evidence.
Running a self-funded search rather than raising per-deal? See the Self-Funded Searcher track. Sitting on a board or special committee instead? See Board-Level Decision Architecture.
Add-Ons
Compress the deal-stage timeline by 50%
Slide deck + video walkthrough + one round of async Q&A
Ongoing intelligence support across an active pipeline (8–20 hrs/month)
This is not for everyone.
Most organizations say they want “integrity” and “good decisions,” but are actually buying speed, validation, and cover. We serve the principals who mean it: people who carry the decision, not just the meeting where it gets discussed.
- ✕You want validation disguised as research
- ✕You can't act on an uncomfortable finding
- ✕You need a long document to justify a decision already made
- ✕You're looking for cover, not a verdict
- ✕You want us to tell you what you want to hear
- ✓You've walked away from a deal or a path based on negative findings before, and can name it, the cost, and why it was the right call
- ✓You ask “what could go wrong?” before “what could go right?”
- ✓You prefer a clear “no” to a vague “maybe”
- ✓You're prepared to act on the answer, including walk away
- ✓You understand that comfortable findings are the expensive ones
Ready for an independent verdict?
Tell us what you're deciding. We'll respond within 24 hours with scope and terms — or tell you if we're not the right fit.
If your problem isn't a decision, it's a pipeline.
Revenue Intelligence is a separate, partner-facing surface for agencies and fractional firms selling into visible commercial problems: pre-outreach account intelligence, gap snapshots, wound diagnosis, and buyer profiling, so your team can sell a diagnostic instead of a demo.